Just a Bit Outside: Making Smart Fantasy Baseball Decisions…for Once

Howie Kendrick is the Dr. House of professional baseball. Dare me to make sense of that analogy? OK…if you insist.

I’ve seen a full six episodes of the inexplicably popular Fox Drama, “House,” which makes me entirely qualified to generalize the show as a heaping pile of horse turd. In every episode, Dr. House and his team encounter a baffling medical mystery and offer – with complete certainty – a handful of diagnoses that one-by-one are proven incorrect. Finally, with the patient on the verge of certain death, the good doctor somehow generates the accurate diagnosis, the patient recovers and House goes back to popping Vicodin like its candy.

And yes, that’s EVERY episode. Why are millions of Americans watching? I suppose on this baseball blog, that’s neither here nor there.

So how does that apply to Howie Kendrick? No, I’m not suggesting that the Anaheim infielder has a drug problem, but I am suggesting that America’s fantasy owners have a problem by stubbornly continuing to insert the young Angel into their lineups.

A quick check of the most mainstream of sites reveals that Kendrick is an especially popular player. He’s owned in 72% of ESPN leagues, which at first blush, sounds right for a man of such alleged talents. The thing is, Kendrick is 28th on ESPN’s player rater – that’s not overall, that’s among other second basemen! Oh sure, Howie has been hot lately, but in a format in which the standard league has 10 teams, utilizes the standard five hitting stats and starts a 2B and a MI, no more than 20 second basemen should EVER be owned. And yet, Kendrick is rostered in nearly three-quarters of all leagues.

But my beef with Kendrick goes beyond his being overrated. Even in deeper leagues in which Kendrick could legitimately be considered, he’s a bad play. Sure, we’re talking about a guy with an impeccable minor league resume, one who was billed as a future big league batting champ. But his lifetime .300 major league batting average is empty; the guy has 18 homeruns in 1,200 major league at-bats! He offers nominal stolen base potential, below-average RBI, and because he’s seemingly allergic to taking a free pass (maybe House can diagnose the ailment), the guy scores far too few runs to be useful. But hey – at least your team starts a .300 hitter, right?

This pre-season, Kendrick’s average draft position in ESPN leagues was 127, making him a 13th round pick on average. Jose Lopez and Mark DeRosa were the next 2Bs, with ADPs of 136 and 141, respectively. And don’t even get me started about Aaron Hill, Marco Scutaro and Orlando Hudson, who were undrafted free agents in all but the deepest 2009 leagues. Do you get the picture? Not only is Kendrick’s limited skill set vastly overrated by players today, but it was overrated during the 2009 pre-season and will likely be overrated again in the spring of 2010.

Riddle me this, batsmen – which 2B would you rather have on your fantasy team?

Player A: .300 BA, 7 HR, 37 RBI, 49 Runs, 5 SB
Player B: .273 BA, 6 HR, 37 RBI, 38 Runs, 8 SB

Obviously, you’ll take the superior performance of Player A (Freddy Sanchez, by the way – who is 169 overall on CBS Sportsline’s player rater compared to 241 for Kendrick). And while one could argue that Howie’s production has come in 120 fewer at-bats, I say that’s another indictment against him! After all, despite breaking camp as the Angels’ starting 2B each of the past three seasons, various injuries have prevented Kendrick from ever amassing more than 340 at-bats in a season.

Listen, I have nothing personal against Howie Kendrick. I’m sure his talent is real and may eventually lead to legitimate fantasy value. But hey, I also know that Hugh Laurie is a fine actor…and I don’t let that fact excuse him for starring in redundant, brain-shrinking, stink bomb TV. It is human nature to be wowed by minor league stats and the gushing reviews of advanced scouts, just like it’s easy for us to be influenced to watch a crappy show by its copious amount of Golden Globe nominations. But sometimes, fantasy addicts, the proof is in the pudding.

You shouldn’t flip over to “House” during its normal timeslot because that’s what you’re programmed to do; you should only watch if you’ve had a frontal lobotomy and can no longer process rational thought. The same holds true for Howie Kendrick – don’t draft and/or start him in your fantasy leagues because you’re blinded by a pretty batting average and the allure of his potential. I’d wager that in 99% of leagues in which Kendrick starts, there is a better and cheaper 2B available on the waiver wire.

So don’t do it. Don’t watch crappy TV and don’t let momentum lead you to employing overrated second basemen – not now, not ever. Because the truth is, a bad episode of House only lasts an hour…but a season of Howie Kendrick on your roster may cause a significant narcotic dependency. And seriously, how much Vicodin do you really want to pop?