The Actual Value of Fantasy Baseball Decisions

Michael Lewis’ “Moneyball” introduced the baseball mainstream to Sabermetrics, but I realized early on that I didn’t have the brain capacity to fully understand, absorb or apply all of the copious statistical data that had suddenly flooded the market. What I was able to glean from the book was the to recognize and appreciate what my competition valued and under-valued. Like most fantasy baseball enthusiasts, I’m always looking for an edge…and thus my one truly Sabremetric endeavor each year is a massive, ranked list that I use as draft prep for my long-running 12-team, 5x5 rotisserie mixed league.

Dubbed the SPI (ostensibly for “Smith Projection Index”, but clearly a rip-off of the college basketball rating system), my rankings use a proprietary formula to weigh pre-season draft lists from “fantasy experts”, average draft position (ADP) from comparable leagues and my own carefully culled data. The goal is to rank every player and prospect, not necessarily from first to worst, but by actual value. I want to be able to anticipate when specific players will be snatched up, as this foresight can be perhaps my biggest advantage in a league where hours of draft homework is the standard. But I also don’t want to take a mediocre player simply because he’s on a lot of sleeper lists. I want a draft list that is both objective AND subjective, because really…isn’t that the best way to make an informed and accurate decision?

It’s easy to love Albert Pujols’ production, but when you’re building your draft list (or trying to climb the standings), a more important element is deciphering Pujols’ value relative to other players in the league. Four months ago, the SPI said Pujols was the best player in baseball, but that Prince Fielder was the best 1B value – someone who would likely produce 1st round stats despite being a 3rd or 4th round draft pick. SPI ranked him #25, roughly 5-10 picks ahead of where he was selected in most comparable leagues. Obviously no one who selected Pujols is kicking himself that he missed Fielder, but of the SPI’s top 15 First Basemen, only Prince and Joey Votto had rankings that were double digits better than the players’ ADP. Fielder ended up as the 21st pick, Votto the 105th (despite an SPI of 74), and neither of the owners who drafted these players is disappointed.

I could bore you with the SPI’s pre-season studs and sleepers, and its mid-season hits and misses, but instead, I’d like to implore you to consider four types of value when building your daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and keeper league rosters. Potential value is the sexy siren that can present the greatest (or lowest) return on investment; performance value is entirely objective, incredibly accurate, and yet easy to dismiss because it’s, for lack of a better word, boring; perceived value uses projections, extrapolations and – surprisingly enough – wishful thinking to make judgment calls. But it’s the incredibly obvious and too-often ignored Actual Value that represents your greatest chance of success, because it takes into account all available subjective and objective data to reach a conclusion. Maybe our progressive minds can absorb this information, but you can bet that the majority of your competition will get stuck somewhere along the way to enlightenment. Use their weaknesses to your advantage.

You cannot be a winning fantasy player over the long haul if you’re too focused on potential, performance or perceived value. But actual value – the “It’s the Economy, Stupid” of fantasy baseball analysis – is one of the few legitimate methods for us to grab a real advantage. And short of unsustainable good luck, it’s likely the only tool to ensure long-term competitiveness in the deepest and most ruthless of fantasy baseball contests.

This is THE (capital letters) vital skill to have when planning your draft, building a mid-season trade offer or weighing your roster options. Once you recognize the competitor who is too hung up on potential value, you’ll be able to capitalize on his “grass is always greener” fetish. Compete against a performance value owner? His lack of imagination will keep him in the past while you dominate the future. And if you find yourself up against a perceived value foe, you can count on his overreliance on formulas and crossed-fingers to make him ignore the real world trends staring him right in the face.

Of course, if you’re matched up with an opponent who understands the actual value of potential, performance and perception…chances are it’s too late. I’ve already won.