Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Inconsistent Players

For my inaugural post, I felt it necessary to cover a topic befitting a blog titled “Daily Baseball Data”. Nothing is more valuable in daily leagues than consistency. A player that will be in the lineup every day and produce steady numbers is invaluable. It means one less spot in your lineup to analyze each day, which gives you more time to focus energy in other areas.

Conversely, productive players who continually fail to find a place in their team’s lineup can slowly lead to fantasy paralysis. There are few things worse than finally checking lineup in the middle of a game and wondering why your player was left out of the mix.

With that in mind, here are a few fantasy players that are increasingly becoming headaches. Not because their performance is wretched, but because you feel the need to check on their status a dozen times before each game:

Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves: This is an easy one because Jones has had the same story for years. An immensely productive player when he’s on the field, Jones is batting .292 with an .880 OPS this season. It’s a far cry from his tremendous 2008, but still solid.

But, as usual with Jones, the injuries remain a problem. He has already missed 12 of Atlanta’s 85 games. It would be somewhat more excusable if he missed 12 games in a row. At least then you would know he’s hurt and needs to be on the bench.

Instead, Jones spreads out his absences. He missed the third game of the season and then four games in a row in mid-April. He missed two games four days apart in early May, back-to-back games on May 22-23 and the last three with a groin injury.

It’s a no brainer to put Jones in the lineup when you know he’s going to play. But do you ever really KNOW he’s going to play?

Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas Rangers: It’s hard to imagine any player on pace for 40 homers and 25 steals would have trouble getting in the lineup, but that’s the situation Cruz is in at the moment.

Since Josh Hamilton’s return to the majors, the Rangers have a cluttered outfield situation that also includes David Murphy, Marlon Byrd and Andruw Jones.

Texas has won six of its last eight games and Cruz has slumped recently while Murphy, Byrd and Jones have played well. As a result, manager Ron Washington has decided Cruz is the odd man out, even though he is the superior player.

Even if you know Cruz should be in your daily fantasy lineup, his MLB manager apparently has less confidence in him and that’s leads to a frustrating situation where a recent fantasy asset is becoming gamble.

Mike Napoli, C, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: What’s wrong with this picture: a catcher with an .863 OPS and on pace for 25 homers has only played in 58 of his team’s 83 games.

Napoli is arguably the third or fourth-best fantasy catcher as far as production per game, only the Angels don’t seem to realize that probably indicates he should play more. Instead, Napoli is routinely benched for Jeff Mathis, who is a superior defensive player.

Los Angeles’ outfield situation has a tremendous impact on Napoli’s playing time. The team has five outfielders with more than 148 at-bats while Napoli has 194.

Catcher is such a thin position that it’s absolute agony watching so much power potential go to waste. It necessitates that you use a roster spot for a backup catcher for the 32 percent of Angels’ games that Napoli is on the bench.

Jason Kubel, OF, Minnesota Twins: It’s no secret that Kubel is a dreadful hitter against lefties. He has a career .836 OPS in 1144 at-bats against righties and a .635 OPS in 282 at-bats against lefties. That disparity is the only thing preventing him from being a must-start fantasy outfielder.

But it also makes me wonder if Kubel has ever really gotten a fair shot at being an every day player. Recent baseball history is littered with guys who struggled against lefthanded pitching before adjusting to become everyday players (Paul O’Neill and David Ortiz come to mind).

Owning Kubel, like every other player on this list, is an exercise in patience. Unlike other fantasy sports, baseball has only rare instances in which a coach’s decisions impact your team. Filling out the lineup card is one of the biggest.

Kubel is on pace for a career-high 505 at bats (as well as 26 homers and 81 RBI). The Twins are still prone to sit him against lefties though, which makes him something less than a reliable everyday player.

Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: I used to work at a sports organization when Tony LaRussa was nicknamed “The Chemist”, mainly because of his propensity for experimenting with his lineup instead of just playing it simple.

Rasmus is a 22-year-old outfielder with an .814 OPS – second-best on the team behind you-know-who. Injuries have led to him being fourth on the team with 257 at-bats and yet he currently finds himself losing at-bats to Ryan Ludwick, Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel - veterans that are not producing nearly as well.

Forward-thinking owners pounced on Rasmus early and are eagerly waiting for LaRussa to proclaim “this is our guy.”

But until then it’s going to be a nightly exercise in trying to find out what concoction “The Chemist” is coming up with next.

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